Democratic
Paige Cognetti
Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $7.1M
- From individuals
- $6M
- Spent
- $6.1M
- Cash on hand
- $950.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 8th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Cognetti (D)
53%
chance of winning
Bresnahan (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Cognetti (D)
46%
chance of winning
Bresnahan (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rob Bresnahan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.2M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $5.3M
- Cash on hand
- $909.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.84 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cognetti | Bresnahan | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 400 V | 47 | 45 | D+2 | R+3.2 |
| Impact Research for Cognetti's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+3.2 |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 27–Aug 28 | 615 V | 45 | 43 | D+2 | D+1.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jun 23, 2026.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 768,565
- People per km²
- 104
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
385,074 votes · R+1.6✓ Rob Bresnahan, Jr. (R)50.8%
Matt Cartwright (D)49.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
385,240 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%
2022
286,886 votes · D+2.4✓ Matt Cartwright (D)51.2%
Jim Bognet (R)48.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
343,787 votes · D+3.6✓ Matthew Alton Cartwright (D)51.8%
James Rocco Bognet (R)48.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
469,661 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Joe Biden (D)49.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,166 votes · D+9.3✓ Matthew Alton Cartwright (D)54.6%
John Robert Chrin (R)45.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
380,818 votes · R+8.9✓ Brian Fitzpatrick (R)54.4%
Steve Santarsiero (D)45.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
386,444 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%