Democratic
Kristi Burke
Artist and YouTuber
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $102K
- From individuals
- $101.6K
- Spent
- $87.9K
- Cash on hand
- $14.1K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 1st District
Harshbarger is very likely to win: Harshbarger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Burke (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Harshbarger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+39
- Partisan lean
- R+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Harshbarger is very likely to win: Harshbarger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Burke (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Harshbarger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+51.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+63 to R+40
- Partisan lean
- R+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Diana Harshbarger
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $549.1K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+58: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,991
- People per km²
- 68
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
330,199 votes · R+60.2✓ Diana Harshbarger (R)78.1%
Kevin Jenkins (D)19.4%
Richard G. Baker (I)1.7%
Levi Brake (I)0.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
345,273 two-party votes · R+58.5 · R+57.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.2%
Kamala Harris (D)20.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
188,003 votes · R+59.8✓ Diana Harshbarger (R)78.3%
Cameron Parsons (D)19.7%
Richard G Baker (I)1.3%
Matt Makrom (I)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
305,423 votes · R+53.8✓ Diana Harshbarger (R)74.7%
Blair Walsingham (D)22.5%
Steve Holder (I)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
331,013 two-party votes · R+55.2 · R+59.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.6%
Joe Biden (D)22.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
224,282 votes · R+57.1✓ Phil Roe (R)77.1%
Marty Olsen (D)21.0%
Michael D Salyer (I)1.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
253,025 votes · R+67.1✓ David P Roe (R)78.4%
Alan Bohms (D)15.4%
Robert D Franklin (I)6.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
269,937 two-party votes · R+59.2 · R+61.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)20.4%