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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 20th District
Schultz is very likely to win: Schultz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schultz (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Andersen (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+47.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+38 to D+57
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schultz is very likely to win: Schultz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schultz (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Andersen (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Incumbent U.S. representative from the 25th district (previously ran in the 25th district)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $2.7M
- Spent
- $3.9M
- Cash on hand
- $774.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Brent Andersen
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $92.6K
- Spent
- $74.4K
- Cash on hand
- $18.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,579
- People per km²
- 2,378
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 24%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 43%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
317,559 two-party votes · D+37.8 · D+39.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)68.9%
Donald Trump (R)31.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
188,366 votes · D+44.6✓ Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)72.3%
Drew Montez Clark (R)27.7%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
56,617 votes · D+60.6✓ Cherfilus-McCormick, Sheila (D)79.0%
Mariner, Jason (R)19.4%
ter Maat, Mike (OTH)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
322,409 votes · D+57.4✓ Alcee L Hastings (D)78.7%
Greg Musselwhite (R)21.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
357,206 two-party votes · D+48.5 · D+44.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)74.3%
Donald Trump (R)25.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
210,636 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Alcee L Hastings (D)96.2%
Writein (—)3.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
277,560 votes · D+60.6✓ Alcee L Hastings (D)80.3%
Gary Stein (R)19.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
311,331 two-party votes · D+52.6 · D+50.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.3%
Donald Trump (R)23.7%