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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 13th District
Luna is favored to win: Luna wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Gray (D)
25%
chance of winning
Luna (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
Luna is favored to win: Luna wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Gray (D)
33%
chance of winning
Luna (R)
67%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Leela Gray
Retired U.S. Army brigadier general
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $600.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Anna Paulina Luna
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.1M
- From individuals
- $2.5M
- Spent
- $3.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.86 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gray | Luna | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 27 | 500 LV | 51 | 46 | D+5 | Even |
| Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 27 | 500 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | Even |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Luna's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 4–Aug 6 | 400 LV | 41 | 49 | R+8 | R+1.7 |
| GQR for Gray's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 4–Aug 6 | 500 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+7.5 |
| Public Policy Polling for Gray's campaignD-sponsored | May 19–May 20 | 616 RV | 39 | 41 | R+2 | R+5.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 27, 2026.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,262
- People per km²
- 428
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
412,020 votes · R+9.6✓ Anna Paulina Luna (R)54.8%
Whitney Fox (D)45.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
403,189 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+11.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
341,863 votes · R+8.2✓ Anna Paulina Luna (R)53.1%
Eric Lynn (D)45.0%
Frank Craft (L)1.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
406,561 votes · D+6.1✓ Charlie Crist (D)53.0%
Anna Paulina Luna (R)46.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
643,013 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
316,971 votes · D+15.3✓ Charlie Crist (D)57.6%
George Buck (R)42.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
355,842 votes · D+3.8✓ Charlie Crist (D)51.9%
David W Jolly (R)48.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
374,116 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%