Democratic
Shaun Finnie
Investment banker
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $764.9K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 2nd District
Toth is very likely to win: Toth wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Finnie (D)
2%
chance of winning
Toth (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+13.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
Toth is very likely to win: Toth wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Finnie (D)
3%
chance of winning
Toth (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+15.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Steve Toth
State representative from the 15th district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and candidate for the 8th Congressional district in 2016
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $976.4K
- From individuals
- $768.7K
- Spent
- $808.7K
- Cash on hand
- $167.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Finnie | Toth | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Finnie's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 4 | 501 LV | 37 | 46 | R+9 | R+16.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 830,899
- People per km²
- 632
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
326,883 votes · R+31.3✓ Dan Crenshaw (R)65.7%
Peter Filler (D)34.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
333,162 two-party votes · R+23.0 · R+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.5%
Kamala Harris (D)38.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
230,287 votes · R+31.8✓ Dan Crenshaw (R)65.9%
Robin Fulford (D)34.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
346,726 votes · R+13.0✓ Dan Crenshaw (R)55.6%
Sima Ladjevardian (D)42.8%
Elliott Robert Scheirman (L)1.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
329,759 two-party votes · R+21.7 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Joe Biden (D)39.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
263,392 votes · R+7.4✓ Dan Crenshaw (R)52.8%
Todd Litton (D)45.6%
Patrick Gunnels (L)0.9%
Scott Cubbler (I)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
278,236 votes · R+25.5✓ Ted Poe (R)60.6%
Pat Bryan (D)36.0%
James B Veasaw (L)2.3%
Joshua Darr (G)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
247,839 two-party votes · R+32.1 · R+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.0%