All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 6th District
All-partyProjected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (100%).
Miguez is very likely to win: Miguez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Forbes (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Miguez (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (99%).
Miguez is very likely to win: Miguez wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Forbes wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 12
1%
Miguez wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Forbes 1% · Miguez 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Miguez wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+24.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Pat Forbes
- Raised
- $118K
- From individuals
- $108.1K
- Spent
- $47.3K
- Cash on hand
- $70.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Lindsay Garcia
Activist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $92.5K
- From individuals
- $87.2K
- Spent
- $64.8K
- Cash on hand
- $27.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Blake Miguez
State senator from the 22nd district (previously ran for the 5th district)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $6.6M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $4.6M
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Stephen Wagley
- Raised
- $595.6K
- From individuals
- $8.6K
- Spent
- $436.4K
- Cash on hand
- $159.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Rick Edmonds
State senator from the 6th district (2024–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $512.1K
- From individuals
- $340.9K
- Spent
- $280.5K
- Cash on hand
- $231.6K
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Monique Appeaning
Candidate for Louisiana's 66th House of Representatives district in 2023
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $108.4K
- From individuals
- $49.4K
- Spent
- $94.1K
- Cash on hand
- $14.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.47 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 799,524
- People per km²
- 79
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 25%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
296,033 votes · D+14.7✓ Cleo Fields (D)50.8%
Elbert Guillory (R)37.7%
Quentin Anthony Anderson (D)8.0%
Peter Williams (D)2.1%
Wilken Jones, Jr. (D)1.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
354,092 two-party votes · R+30.3 · R+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Kamala Harris (D)34.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
235,928 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Garret Graves (R)80.4%
Rufus Holt Craig, Jr (L)13.0%
Brian Belzer (R)6.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
373,996 votes · R+47.1✓ Garret Graves (R)71.0%
Dartanyon "daw" Williams (D)25.5%
Shannon Sloan (L)2.6%
Richard "rpt" Torregano (I)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
442,146 two-party votes · R+33.8 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
268,525 votes · R+54.4✓ Garret Graves (R)69.5%
Justin Dewitt (D)20.5%
"andie" Saizan (D)8.1%
Devin Lance Graham (I)2.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
331,098 votes · R+61.6✓ Garret Graves (R)62.7%
Richard Lieberman (D)14.9%
Robert Lamar "bob" Bell (R)10.1%
Jermaine Sampson (D)9.0%
Richard M Fontanesi (L)2.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
339,611 two-party votes · R+35.2 · R+37.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.4%