DemocraticIncumbent
Debbie Dingell
Incumbent U.S. representative (2015–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $467.2K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $437.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 6th District
Dingell is very likely to win: Dingell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dingell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Smiley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dingell is very likely to win: Dingell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dingell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Smiley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Heather Smiley
Office analyst and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.94 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 766,021
- People per km²
- 291
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 10%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
453,306 votes · D+27.9✓ Debbie Dingell (D)62.0%
Heather Smiley (R)35.0%
Clyde K. Shabazz (G)1.8%
Bill Krebaum (L)1.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
452,031 two-party votes · D+23.9 · D+25.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.0%
Donald Trump (R)38.0%
2022
367,412 votes · D+31.8✓ Debbie Dingell (D)65.8%
Whittney Williams (R)34.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
378,960 votes · R+16.3✓ Fred Upton (R)55.8%
Jon Hoadley (D)40.1%
Jeff Depoy (L)2.7%
John Lawrence (G)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
450,292 two-party votes · D+27.0 · D+22.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.5%
Donald Trump (R)36.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
293,438 votes · R+4.7✓ Fred Upton (R)50.2%
Matt Longjohn (D)45.7%
Stephen J Young (CST)4.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
328,784 votes · R+23.3✓ Fred Upton (R)58.6%
Paul Clements (D)36.4%
Lorence Wenke (L)4.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
372,628 two-party votes · D+21.9 · D+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.9%
Donald Trump (R)39.1%