Democratic
Sam Forstag
Smokejumper and union leader
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $833K
- Cash on hand
- $550.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Montana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana's 1st District
Flint is favored to win: Flint wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Forstag (D)
31%
chance of winning
Flint (R)
69%
- Average margin
- R+2.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 6in our database
Flint is favored to win: Flint wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Forstag (D)
27%
chance of winning
Flint (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 6in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Aaron Flint
Veteran and radio host
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Nick Sheedy
Genealogist and research historian
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 6 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Forstag | Flint | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse for the NonStop Local | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 314 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | R+0.8 |
| Impact Research for Forstag's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 20–Sep 23 | 500 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | R+2.1 |
| Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports ForstagD-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 536 RV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | R+1.0 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 375 RV | 41 | 42 | R+1 | R+0.1 |
| Impact Research for Forstag's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 22–Jun 25 | 500 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | R+4.1 |
| Upswing Research for 314 ActionD-sponsored | Apr 30–May 5 | 401 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+7.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 24, 2026.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 564,941
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
322,266 votes · R+7.9✓ Ryan K. Zinke (R)52.3%
Monica Tranel (D)44.6%
Dennis Hayes (L)3.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
312,007 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.0%
Kamala Harris (D)44.0%
2022
247,960 votes · R+3.3✓ Ryan K Zinke (R)49.6%
Monica Tranel (D)46.5%
John Lamb (L)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
350,564 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Joe Biden (D)44.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
257,458 two-party votes · R+15.5 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.3%