Democratic
Kevin Burge
IT security specialist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $316.7K
- From individuals
- $313.2K
- Spent
- $236.9K
- Cash on hand
- $79.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 24th District
Duyne is clearly favored to win: Duyne wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Burge (D)
16%
chance of winning
Duyne (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Duyne is favored to win: Duyne wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Burge (D)
25%
chance of winning
Duyne (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+6.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Beth Van Duyne
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.9M
- From individuals
- $662.7K
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 764,246
- People per km²
- 1,083
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 8%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
376,626 votes · R+20.6✓ Beth van Duyne (R)60.3%
Sam Eppler (D)39.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
366,762 two-party votes · R+16.3 · R+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
297,825 votes · R+19.5✓ Beth van Duyne (R)59.7%
Jan McDowell (D)40.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
344,021 votes · R+1.4✓ Vanduyne (R)48.8%
Candace Valenzuela (D)47.5%
Darren Hamilton (L)1.6%
Steve Kuzmich (I)1.2%
Mark Bauer (I)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
446,995 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Joe Biden (D)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
263,418 votes · R+3.1✓ Kenny E Marchant (R)50.6%
Jan McDowell (D)47.5%
Mike Kolls (L)1.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
275,635 votes · R+17.6✓ Kenny Marchant (R)56.2%
Jan McDowell (D)39.3%
Kolis (L)3.1%
Kevin McCormick (G)1.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
325,310 two-party votes · R+24.1 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.0%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
TX-5Chelsey HockettLance Gooden96%Rep.90%Rep. TX-6Danny MintonJake Ellzey99%Rep.94%Rep. TX-12Angela Rodriguez PrillimanCraig Goldman97%Rep.94%Rep. TX-25Dione SimsRoger Williams98%Rep.94%Rep. TX-26Steven ShookBrandon Gill99%Rep.95%Rep. TX-32Dan BarriosJace Yarbrough84%Rep.80%Rep. TX-33Colin AllredPatrick Gillespie>99%Dem.>99%Dem.