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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas's 23rd District

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Stout (D)
41%
chance of winning
Herrera (R)
59%
Average margin
R+1.6
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
1in our database

Herrera is favored to win: Herrera wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Stout (D)
31%
chance of winning
Herrera (R)
69%
Average margin
R+4.2
80% of outcomes
R+15 to D+7
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
1in our database

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+1.6R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+4.2R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Stout 41%Herrera 59%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Stout 31%Herrera 69%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Republican

Brandon Herrera

Firearms manufacturer, YouTuber, and candidate for this district in 2024

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$3.1M
From individuals
$133.6K
Spent
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$554.2K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Southwest adjustment
−1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Southwest adjustmentR+4.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+0.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesR+0.8Polling average1 poll, latest Mar 11R+4.1Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+1.6Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+4.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1.26
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+4.1Mar 11Nov 3
All 1 polls
PollsterDatesSampleStoutHerreraMarginAdjusted
Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsoredMar 10–Mar 11521 V4042R+2R+4.1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Mar 11, 2026.

The district

Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+6.7R+8.9 vs. nation2020 presidentR+6.9R+11.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+14.8R+13.3 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
787,157
People per km²
5
Adults with a B.A.+
36%
White, no degree
16%of adults
  • White 30%
  • Hispanic 60%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 Earlier district lines

290,059 votes · R+24.6
✓ Tony Gonzales (R)62.3%
S. Limon (D)37.7%

2024 President Vote in this district

316,359 two-party votes · R+14.8 · R+13.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Kamala Harris (D)42.6%

2022 Earlier district lines

208,806 votes · R+18.1
✓ Tony Gonzales (R)55.9%
John Lira (D)38.8%
Frank Lopez, Jr (I)5.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

295,513 votes · R+4.1
✓ Tony Gonzales (R)50.6%
Gina Ortiz Jones (D)46.6%
Beto Villela (L)2.8%

2020 President Vote in this district

308,120 two-party votes · R+6.9 · R+11.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Joe Biden (D)46.5%

2018 Earlier district lines

209,935 votes · R+0.5
✓ Will Hurd (R)49.2%
Gina Ortiz Jones (D)48.7%
Ruben Corvalan (L)2.1%

2016 Earlier district lines

228,852 votes · R+1.4
✓ Will Hurd (R)48.3%
Pete P Gallego (D)47.0%
Ruben S Corvalan (L)4.7%

2016 President Vote in this district

264,969 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+8.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.7%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.

Neighboring districts

TX-11Claire ReynoldsAugust Pfluger>99%Rep.99%Rep. TX-16Veronica EscobarAdam Bauman>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-19Kyle RableTom Sell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. TX-20Joaquin CastroEdgardo Rafael Baez>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-21Kristin HookMark Teixeira94%Rep.91%Rep. TX-28Henry CuellarTano Tijerina90%Dem.89%Dem. TX-35Johnny GarciaCarlos De La Cruz60%Rep.60%Rep.