Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ford is very likely to win: Ford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ford is very likely to win: Ford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
State representative from the 8th district (2007–present) and candidate for mayor of Chicago in 2019
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Member of Kane County Regional Board of Schools and perennial candidate
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
Lean D+68: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.