DemocraticIncumbent
Betty McCollum
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $907.5K
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $497.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 4th District
McCollum is very likely to win: McCollum wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McCollum (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wikstrom (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+45.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+55
- Partisan lean
- D+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McCollum is very likely to win: McCollum wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McCollum (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wikstrom (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+43.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Paul Wikstrom
Engineer and nominee for Minnesota House of Representatives District 40B in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $28K
- From individuals
- $23K
- Spent
- $14.7K
- Cash on hand
- $2.2K
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.3 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.3 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 694,622
- People per km²
- 803
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 11%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
361,043 votes · D+34.7✓ Betty McCollum (D)67.3%
May Lor Xiong (R)32.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
368,560 two-party votes · D+36.5 · D+38.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)68.2%
Donald Trump (R)31.8%
2022
295,973 votes · D+35.4✓ Betty McCollum (D)67.6%
May Lor Xiong (R)32.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
389,114 votes · D+37.1✓ Betty McCollum (D)63.2%
Gene Rechtzigel (R)29.0%
Susan Sindt (GLC)7.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
385,399 two-party votes · D+38.6 · D+34.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.3%
Donald Trump (R)30.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
328,614 votes · D+37.9✓ Betty McCollum (D)66.0%
Greg Ryan (R)29.7%
Susan Pendergast Sindt (LMN)4.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
351,944 votes · D+25.4✓ Betty McCollum (D)57.8%
Greg Ryan (R)34.4%
Susan Pendergast Sindt (LMN)7.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
327,332 two-party votes · D+34.4 · D+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.2%
Donald Trump (R)32.8%