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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 3rd District
Cammack is very likely to win: Cammack wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Harp (D)
3%
chance of winning
Cammack (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cammack is clearly favored to win: Cammack wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Harp (D)
9%
chance of winning
Cammack (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+11.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Seth Harp
Radio sports show host
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $136.5K
- From individuals
- $135K
- Spent
- $90.7K
- Cash on hand
- $45.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Kat Cammack
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $992.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 798,338
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
391,457 votes · R+23.2✓ Kat Cammack (R)61.6%
Tom Wells (D)38.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
395,572 two-party votes · R+21.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
284,893 votes · R+26.5✓ Kat Cammack (R)62.5%
Danielle Hawk (D)36.3%
Linda S Brooks (I)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
390,401 votes · R+14.3✓ Kat Cammack (R)57.1%
Adam Christensen (D)42.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
449,134 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Joe Biden (D)44.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
306,496 votes · R+15.2✓ Ted Yoho (R)57.6%
Yvonne Hayes Hinson (D)42.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
342,700 votes · R+17.4✓ Ted S Yoho (R)56.6%
Kenneth "ken" McGurn (D)39.8%
Tom Wells (I)3.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
342,345 two-party votes · R+16.6 · R+18.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.7%