DemocraticIncumbent
Bill Foster
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $2.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 11th District
Foster is very likely to win: Foster wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foster (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Walter (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+24.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Foster is very likely to win: Foster wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Foster (D)
98%
chance of winning
Walter (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jeff Walter
Mayor of Elburn
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $420.2K
- From individuals
- $211.5K
- Spent
- $406.3K
- Cash on hand
- $13.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 741,082
- People per km²
- 308
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 6%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
360,293 votes · D+11.2✓ Bill Foster (D)55.5%
Jerry Evans (R)44.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
356,577 two-party votes · D+11.5 · D+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.8%
Donald Trump (R)44.2%
2022
264,281 votes · D+12.9✓ Bill Foster (D)56.4%
Catalina Lauf (R)43.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
307,472 votes · D+26.6✓ Bill Foster (D)63.3%
Rick Laib (R)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
373,709 two-party votes · D+15.5 · D+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.8%
Donald Trump (R)42.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
227,765 votes · D+27.7✓ Bill Foster (D)63.8%
Nick Stella (R)36.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
275,573 votes · D+20.9✓ Bill Foster (D)60.4%
Tonia Khouri (R)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
308,979 two-party votes · D+11.4 · D+9.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%
Also on the ballot in Illinois
Neighboring districts
IL-1Jonathan JacksonChristian Maxwell>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-3Delia RamirezAngel Oakley>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-6Sean CastenNiki Conforti99%Dem.95%Dem. IL-8Melissa BeanJennifer Davis99%Dem.97%Dem. IL-9Daniel BissJohn Elleson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-10Brad SchneiderCarl Lambrecht>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-14Lauren UnderwoodJames Marter99%Dem.94%Dem. IL-16Paul NolleyDarin LaHood98%Rep.95%Rep.