Democratic
Cyril Jefferson
Mayor of High Point
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $199.9K
- From individuals
- $181.1K
- Spent
- $186K
- Cash on hand
- $13.9K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 6th District
McDowell is clearly favored to win: McDowell wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Jefferson (D)
7%
chance of winning
McDowell (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McDowell is clearly favored to win: McDowell wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Jefferson (D)
16%
chance of winning
McDowell (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Addison McDowell
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $649.9K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $423.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 785,666
- People per km²
- 180
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 19%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
337,081 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Addison McDowell (R)69.2%
Kevin E. Hayes (CST)30.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
385,677 two-party votes · R+17.4 · R+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.7%
Kamala Harris (D)41.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
258,998 votes · D+8.9✓ Kathy E Manning (D)53.9%
Christian Castelli (R)45.0%
Thomas Watercott (L)1.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
814,465 votes · D+24.5✓ Kathy Manning (D)62.3%
Lee Haywood (R)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
461,624 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+21.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Joe Biden (D)41.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
284,237 votes · R+13.0✓ B Mark Walker (R)56.5%
Ryan Watts (D)43.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
351,150 votes · R+18.5✓ Mark Walker (R)59.2%
Pete Glidewell (D)40.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
370,566 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+23.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%