2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Forecast updates
What changed in the forecast each day: the odds of control, every race whose rating or favored party changed, and the new polls and fundraising reports since the previous update. Every day since Oct 10, 2026 comes from the current model run on the polls available that day; other inputs (candidates, fundraising) are as they stand now.
Latest: Friday, October 16, 2026
Compared with Oct 15. Horizon forecast.
By date
Each day links to its update.
Every update
Chance of a majority (Horizon), from the favored side, and its change since the entry below.
| Date | Senate | House | Governors | Call changes | New polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Oct 16 | D 74% no change | D 97% no change | D 72% no change | 0 | 0 |
| Thu, Oct 15 | D 74% no change | D 97% no change | D 72% no change | 1 | 2 |
| Wed, Oct 14 | D 74% D +1 | D 97% no change | D 72% D +1 | 3 | 8 |
| Tue, Oct 13 | D 73% no change | D 97% no change | D 71% no change | 0 | 1 |
| Mon, Oct 12 | D 73% R +1 | D 97% no change | D 71% R +1 | 3 | 13 |
| Sun, Oct 11 | D 73% no change | D 97% no change | D 72% no change | 6 | 22 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | D 74% | D 97% | D 72% | — | — |
A call change is a race whose rating (Solid, Likely, Lean, Toss-up) or favored party changed. New polls are counted between nightly forecasts only.