Democratic
Casey Shepard
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $8.8K
- From individuals
- $3.5K
- Spent
- $5.7K
- Cash on hand
- $3.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 17th District
Sessions is very likely to win: Sessions wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Shepard (D)
3%
chance of winning
Sessions (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sessions is clearly favored to win: Sessions wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Shepard (D)
8%
chance of winning
Sessions (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Pete Sessions
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $498.8K
- Spent
- $557.2K
- Cash on hand
- $934K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 789,837
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 10%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
291,031 votes · R+32.7✓ Pete Sessions (R)66.3%
Mark Lorenzen (D)33.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
315,489 two-party votes · R+22.0 · R+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.0%
Kamala Harris (D)39.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
217,246 votes · R+33.0✓ Pete Sessions (R)66.5%
Mary Jo Woods (D)33.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
306,869 votes · R+15.4✓ Pete Sessions (R)55.8%
Rick Kennedy (D)40.9%
Ted Brown (L)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
324,292 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
237,348 votes · R+15.8✓ Bill Flores (R)56.8%
Rick Kennedy (D)41.3%
Peter Churchman (L)1.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
245,728 votes · R+26.6✓ Bill Flores (R)60.8%
William Matta (D)35.2%
Clark Patterson (L)4.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
259,537 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.8%