Democratic
David Dawson
Former state representative from the 14th district (2013–2017)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $240.2K
- From individuals
- $212.2K
- Spent
- $176.2K
- Cash on hand
- $64K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Iowa › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa's 4th District
McGowan is very likely to win: McGowan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dawson (D)
1%
chance of winning
McGowan (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McGowan is very likely to win: McGowan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Dawson (D)
1%
chance of winning
McGowan (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chris McGowan
President of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $853.3K
- From individuals
- $628.9K
- Spent
- $408.6K
- Cash on hand
- $444.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 798,043
- People per km²
- 14
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
373,824 votes · R+34.4✓ Randy Feenstra (R)67.0%
Ryan Melton (D)32.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
386,839 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Kamala Harris (D)34.0%
2022
277,008 votes · R+37.8✓ Randy Feenstra (R)67.3%
Ryan Melton (D)30.4%
Bryan Jack Holder (OTH)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
383,022 votes · R+24.2✓ Randy Feenstra (R)62.0%
J D Scholten (D)37.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
408,594 two-party votes · R+27.1 · R+31.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.5%
Joe Biden (D)36.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
313,251 votes · R+3.4✓ Steve King (R)50.3%
Jd Scholten (D)47.0%
Charles Aldrich (L)2.0%
Edward Peterson (I)0.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
370,259 votes · R+22.6✓ Steve King (R)61.2%
Kim Weaver (D)38.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
373,655 two-party votes · R+29.1 · R+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.5%