Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon's 4th District
FusionHoyle is very likely to win: Hoyle wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hoyle (D)
99%
chance of winning
DeSpain (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hoyle is clearly favored to win: Hoyle wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hoyle (D)
94%
chance of winning
DeSpain (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Val Hoyle
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $612.3K
- Spent
- $791.5K
- Cash on hand
- $520.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Monique DeSpain
Attorney and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $677.6K
- From individuals
- $317.3K
- Spent
- $289.9K
- Cash on hand
- $387.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 703,228
- People per km²
- 21
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
378,261 votes · D+8.2✓ Val T. Hoyle (D)51.8%
Monique Despain (R)43.9%
Justin Filip (G)2.7%
Dan Bahlen (L)1.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
376,856 two-party votes · D+12.4 · D+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2022
338,587 votes · D+8.0✓ Val Hoyle (D)50.6%
Alek Skarlatos (R)43.1%
Levi Leatherberry (I)2.7%
Jim Howard (CST)1.8%
Mike Beilstein (G)1.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
467,705 votes · D+5.4✓ Peter A Defazio (D)51.5%
Alek Skarlatos (R)46.2%
Daniel Hoffay (G)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
409,735 two-party votes · D+14.5 · D+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
372,893 votes · D+15.6✓ Peter Defazio (D)56.0%
Art Robinson (R)40.9%
Mike Beilstein (G)1.6%
Richard R Jacobson (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
397,568 votes · D+16.6✓ Peter A Defazio (D)55.5%
Art Robinson (R)39.7%
Mike Beilstein (G)3.1%
Gil Guthrie (L)1.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
311,381 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%