DemocraticIncumbent
Donald Norcross
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $749.4K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 1st District
Norcross is very likely to win: Norcross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Norcross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Galdo (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Norcross is very likely to win: Norcross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Norcross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Galdo (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Damon Galdo
Construction worker and candidate for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $15.9K
- From individuals
- $15.2K
- Spent
- $13.9K
- Cash on hand
- $2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 781,116
- People per km²
- 793
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 15%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
361,248 votes · D+18.2✓ Donald Norcross (D)57.8%
Theodore "teddy" Liddell (R)40.0%
Robin Brownfield (G)1.6%
Austin Johnson (OTH)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
360,449 two-party votes · D+18.8 · D+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2022
671,652 votes · D+27.8✓ Donald Norcross (D)62.3%
Claire Gustafson (R)35.2%
Patricia Kline (OTH)1.5%
Isaiah Fletcher (L)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
385,030 votes · D+25.0✓ Donald Norcross (D)62.5%
Claire H Gustafson (R)37.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
396,419 two-party votes · D+24.8 · D+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.4%
Donald Trump (R)37.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
263,592 votes · D+31.9✓ Donald W Norcross (D)64.4%
Paul E Dilks (R)33.2%
Robert Shapiro (L)1.1%
Paul Hamlin (OTH)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
305,473 votes · D+24.0✓ Donald Norcross (D)60.0%
Bob Patterson (R)36.8%
Scot John Tomaszewski (SOC)1.8%
William F Sihr IV (L)0.8%
Michael Berman (OTH)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
327,853 two-party votes · D+24.1 · D+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.1%
Donald Trump (R)37.9%