Democratic
John Vincent
Retiree
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $573K
- From individuals
- $556.1K
- Spent
- $456.9K
- Cash on hand
- $116.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina's 7th District
Fry is very likely to win: Fry wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Vincent (D)
1%
chance of winning
Fry (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+16.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- 1in our database
Fry is very likely to win: Fry wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Vincent (D)
3%
chance of winning
Fry (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Russell Fry
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $838.1K
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $160.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.39 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Vincent | Fry | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling for Vincent's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 27–Jul 28 | 557 LV | 37 | 41 | R+4 | R+10.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 28, 2026.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 762,310
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 25%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
370,329 votes · R+30.0✓ Russell Fry (R)64.9%
Mal Hyman (D)35.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
380,163 two-party votes · R+26.6 · R+25.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.3%
Kamala Harris (D)36.7%
2022
254,141 votes · R+29.7✓ Russell Fry (R)64.8%
Daryl W Scott (D)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
364,091 votes · R+23.7✓ Tom Rice (R)61.8%
Melissa Ward Watson (D)38.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
439,207 two-party votes · R+20.1 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Joe Biden (D)40.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
239,554 votes · R+19.3✓ Tom Rice (R)59.6%
Robert Williams (D)40.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
289,463 votes · R+22.0✓ Tom Rice (R)61.0%
Mal Hyman (D)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
308,562 two-party votes · R+20.9 · R+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.5%