Democratic
Fred Wellman
Podcast host
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $913.7K
- Cash on hand
- $242.2K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Missouri › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri's 2nd District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (43% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Wellman (D)
43%
chance of winning
Wagner (R)
57%
- Average margin
- R+1.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Wellman (D)
49%
chance of winning
Wagner (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ann Wagner
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $4.2M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.73 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 773,969
- People per km²
- 164
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
428,392 votes · R+12.4✓ Ann Wagner (R)54.5%
Ray Hartmann (D)42.5%
Brandon Daugherty (L)2.1%
Shelby Davis (G)0.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
426,970 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Kamala Harris (D)46.0%
2022
315,666 votes · R+12.1✓ Ann Wagner (R)54.9%
Trish Gunby (D)43.1%
Bill Slantz (L)2.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
449,348 votes · R+6.5✓ Ann Wagner (R)51.9%
Jill Schupp (D)45.5%
Martin Schulte (L)2.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
436,057 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Joe Biden (D)46.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
376,066 votes · R+4.0✓ Ann Wagner (R)51.2%
Cort Vanostran (D)47.2%
Larry A Kirk (L)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
413,296 votes · R+21.7✓ Ann Wagner (R)58.5%
Bill Otto (D)37.7%
Jim Higgins (L)2.8%
David Justus Arnold (G)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
387,240 two-party votes · R+17.4 · R+19.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.3%