Democratic
Shannon Taylor
Henrico County commonwealth's attorney (2012–present) and candidate for attorney general in 2025
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 1st District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (54% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Taylor (D)
54%
chance of winning
Wittman (R)
46%
- Average margin
- D+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Taylor is favored to win: Taylor wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Taylor (D)
62%
chance of winning
Wittman (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+1.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rob Wittman
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.2M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $4.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.95 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Taylor | Wittman | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/SSPG | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 609 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+3.1 |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 519 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | R+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 8–Aug 9 | 541 RV | 40 | 41 | R+1 | R+2.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 28, 2026.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 819,012
- People per km²
- 81
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
478,906 votes · R+12.8✓ Robert J. Wittman (R)56.3%
Leslie C. Mehta (D)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
478,064 two-party votes · R+5.0 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Kamala Harris (D)47.5%
2022
342,738 votes · R+13.2✓ Robert J Wittman (R)56.0%
HERBERT C âHERBâ JONES, JR (D)43.0%
David Bruce Foster (I)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
448,241 votes · R+16.5✓ Robert J Wittman (R)58.1%
Qasim Rashid (D)41.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
533,167 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Joe Biden (D)46.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
332,127 votes · R+10.5✓ Robert J "rob" Wittman (R)55.2%
Vangie A Williams (D)44.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
384,655 votes · R+24.1✓ Robert J Wittman (R)59.8%
M D "matt" Rowe (D)36.6%
Glenda Gail Parker (I)3.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
401,092 two-party votes · R+14.7 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.6%