Democratic
Melissa Strange
Businesswoman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $146.1K
- From individuals
- $125.6K
- Spent
- $109K
- Cash on hand
- $44K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky's 4th District
Gallrein is very likely to win: Gallrein wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Strange (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Gallrein (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gallrein is very likely to win: Gallrein wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Strange (D)
1%
chance of winning
Gallrein (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ed Gallrein
Farmer, retired Navy SEAL, and candidate for Kentucky's 7th Senate district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4M
- From individuals
- $3.8M
- Spent
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $422K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -22.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 764,063
- People per km²
- 59
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
279,517 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Thomas Massie (R)99.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
368,466 two-party votes · R+36.2 · R+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Kamala Harris (D)31.9%
2022
257,629 votes · R+35.4✓ Thomas Massie (R)65.0%
Matthew Lehman (D)31.0%
Ethan Keith Osborne (I)3.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
382,480 votes · R+34.2✓ Thomas Massie (R)67.1%
Alexandra Owensby (D)32.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
457,756 two-party votes · R+31.2 · R+35.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.6%
Joe Biden (D)34.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
261,794 votes · R+28.6✓ Thomas Massie (R)62.2%
Seth Hall (D)34.6%
Mike Moffett (I)3.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
327,995 votes · R+44.2✓ Thomas Massie (R)71.3%
Calvin Sidle (D)27.6%
Calvin Silde (D)1.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
355,756 two-party votes · R+38.2 · R+40.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.9%