Democratic
Ace Parsi
Political organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $250K
- From individuals
- $247K
- Spent
- $134.9K
- Cash on hand
- $115.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
West Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia's 2nd District
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Parsi (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Parsi (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Riley Moore
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $530.1K
- Spent
- $867.9K
- Cash on hand
- $817.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.93 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 901,304
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
378,965 votes · R+41.5✓ Riley Moore (R)70.8%
Steven Wendelin (D)29.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
389,967 two-party votes · R+40.4 · R+38.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.2%
Kamala Harris (D)29.8%
2022
244,771 votes · R+31.1✓ Alexander X Mooney (R)65.6%
Barry Lee Wendell (D)34.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
272,994 votes · R+26.2✓ Alexander X Mooney (R)63.1%
Cathy Kunkel (D)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
430,646 two-party votes · R+38.4 · R+43.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Joe Biden (D)30.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
204,792 votes · R+11.3✓ Alex X Mooney (R)54.0%
Talley Sergent (D)43.0%
Daniel P "danny" Lutz Jr (MTN)3.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
242,014 votes · R+16.4✓ Alexander X Mooney (R)58.2%
Mark Hunt (D)41.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
366,657 two-party votes · R+43.3 · R+45.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.3%