Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 6th District
Top twoProjected flip: Independent-held seat, Democrats favored (86%).
Pan is clearly favored to win: Pan wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Pan (D)
86%
chance of winning
Kiley (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+8.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Pan is clearly favored to win: Pan wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Pan (D)
81%
chance of winning
Kiley (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Richard Pan
Former state senator from the 6th district (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Sacramento in 2024 (previously ran in the 3rd district)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $769.5K
- Spent
- $739.2K
- Cash on hand
- $359.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
IndependentIncumbent
Kevin Kiley
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pan | Kiley | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council, which supports Kiley | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 927 LV | 37 | 37 | Even | R+5.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 741 LV | 39 | 35 | D+4 | D+6.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 6, 2026.
The district
Lean D+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 737,494
- People per km²
- 1,361
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 6%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
287,011 votes · D+15.2✓ Ami Bera (D)57.6%
Christine Bish (R)42.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
325,200 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
216,383 votes · D+11.9✓ Ami Bera (D)55.9%
Tamika Hamilton (R)44.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
313,114 votes · D+46.7✓ Doris O Matsui (D)73.3%
Chris Bish (R)26.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
348,890 two-party votes · D+13.0 · D+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.5%
Donald Trump (R)43.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
201,939 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Doris Matsui (D)80.4%
Jrmar Jefferson (D)19.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
235,413 votes · D+50.9✓ Doris O Matsui (D)75.4%
Robert "bob" Evans (R)24.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
249,743 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%