All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 3rd District
All-partyHiggins is very likely to win: Higgins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Day (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Higgins (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Higgins is very likely to win: Higgins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Day (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Higgins (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
John Day
Former insurance industry employee
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $132K
- From individuals
- $122.7K
- Spent
- $47.8K
- Cash on hand
- $84.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Tia LeBrun
Teacher and Democratic candidate for this district in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $7K
- From individuals
- $4.6K
- Spent
- $4.1K
- Cash on hand
- $3.5K
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Caleb Walker
Executive president of the SGA at South Louisiana Community College
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
DemocraticCandidate
Priscilla Gonzalez
Money: no FEC filings matched.
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Clay Higgins
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $893.3K
- From individuals
- $229K
- Spent
- $641.2K
- Cash on hand
- $576.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Kate Cotten
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,059
- People per km²
- 31
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 26%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
320,682 votes · R+58.2✓ Clay Higgins (R)70.6%
Priscilla Gonzalez (D)18.7%
Sadi Summerlin (D)6.6%
"xan" John (R)4.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
332,221 two-party votes · R+36.7 · R+35.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Kamala Harris (D)31.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
224,552 votes · R+71.9✓ Clay Higgins (R)64.3%
Holden Hoggatt (R)10.9%
Lessie Olivia Leblanc (D)10.5%
Tia Lebrun (D)9.4%
THOMAS âLANEâ PAYNE, JR (R)1.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
340,120 votes · R+58.2✓ Clay Higgins (R)67.8%
Braylon Harris (D)17.9%
Rob Anders (D)11.6%
Brandon Leleux (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
392,083 two-party votes · R+33.7 · R+38.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Joe Biden (D)33.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
245,943 votes · R+51.6✓ Clay Higgins (R)55.7%
Mildred "mimi" Methvin (D)17.8%
"josh" Guillory (R)12.8%
"rob" Anderson (D)5.5%
Larry Rader (D)3.9%
2016 runoffEarlier district lines
138,433 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Higgins, Clay (R)56.1%
Angelle, Scott A. (R)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
383,300 two-party votes · R+34.5 · R+36.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.8%