Democratic
Ray Bilger
Former intelligence officer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $139.5K
- From individuals
- $136.2K
- Spent
- $52.2K
- Cash on hand
- $87.3K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 15th District
Thompson is very likely to win: Thompson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bilger (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thompson (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thompson is very likely to win: Thompson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bilger (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thompson (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Glenn Thompson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $842.7K
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $721.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 759,006
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
390,435 votes · R+42.9✓ Glenn Thompson (R)71.5%
Zach Womer (D)28.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
394,148 two-party votes · R+38.3 · R+36.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Kamala Harris (D)30.9%
2022
305,146 votes · R+39.9✓ Glenn Thompson (R)69.9%
Mike Molesevich (D)30.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
347,206 votes · R+46.9✓ Glenn W Thompson Jr (R)73.5%
Robert M Williams (D)26.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
414,381 two-party votes · R+37.6 · R+42.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Joe Biden (D)31.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
243,572 votes · R+35.7✓ Glenn William Thompson Jr (R)67.8%
Susan Boser (D)32.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
326,473 votes · R+21.1✓ Charles W Dent (R)58.4%
Rick Daugherty (D)38.0%
Paul Rizzo (L)3.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
350,417 two-party votes · R+38.4 · R+40.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.8%