DemocraticIncumbent
Teresa Leger Fernández
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $647.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Mexico › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico's 3rd District
Fernández is very likely to win: Fernández wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fernández (D)
99%
chance of winning
Zamora (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+16.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 1in our database
Fernández is very likely to win: Fernández wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Fernández (D)
98%
chance of winning
Zamora (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Martin Zamora
State representative from the 63rd district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $598.7K
- From individuals
- $568.8K
- Spent
- $450.7K
- Cash on hand
- $147.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.36 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Fernández | Zamora | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 362 LV | 53 | 39 | D+14 | D+16.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 693,928
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 35%
- Hispanic 43%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 21%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
288,394 votes · D+12.6✓ Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)56.3%
Sharon E. Clahchischilliage (R)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
291,306 two-party votes · D+5.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2022
230,758 votes · D+16.3✓ Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)58.2%
Alexis Martinez Johnson (R)41.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
317,423 votes · D+17.4✓ Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)58.7%
Alexis M Johnson (R)41.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
293,192 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
244,893 votes · D+34.0✓ Ben R Lujan (D)63.4%
Jerald Steve McFall (R)31.2%
Christopher Manning (L)5.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
273,342 votes · D+24.8✓ Ben Ray Lujan (D)62.4%
Michael H Romero (R)37.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
265,618 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%