DemocraticIncumbent
Gabe Vasquez
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.8M
- From individuals
- $2.4M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
New Mexico › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico's 2nd District
Vasquez is clearly favored to win: Vasquez wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Vasquez (D)
89%
chance of winning
Cunningham (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+8.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- 3in our database
Vasquez is clearly favored to win: Vasquez wins in about 5 of every 6 simulations.
Vasquez (D)
82%
chance of winning
Cunningham (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Greg Cunningham
Retired police officer and nominee for New Mexico's 29th House district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $858.4K
- Spent
- $715.9K
- Cash on hand
- $794.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.79 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Vasquez | Cunningham | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 383 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+5.1 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 554 LV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | D+2.5 |
| co/efficient for the National Republican Congressional CommitteeR-sponsored | Apr 26–Apr 28 | 879 LV | 43 | 41 | D+2 | D+11.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 713,054
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 29%
- Hispanic 61%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
265,292 votes · D+4.1✓ Gabe Vasquez (D)52.1%
Yvette Herrell (R)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
266,011 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Kamala Harris (D)49.1%
2022
192,589 votes · D+0.7✓ Gabriel Vasquez (D)50.3%
Yvette Herrell (R)49.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
264,794 votes · R+7.5✓ Yvette Herrell (R)53.7%
Xochitl Torres Small (D)46.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
310,228 two-party votes · D+9.2 · D+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
199,256 votes · D+1.9✓ Xochitl Torres Small (D)50.9%
Yvette Herrell (R)49.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
228,817 votes · R+25.5✓ Stevan Pearce (R)62.7%
Merrie Lee Soules (D)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
216,556 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%