Democratic
Eunice Lehmacher
Social worker and nominee for state representative in 2020 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $92.9K
- From individuals
- $88.6K
- Spent
- $43.4K
- Cash on hand
- $49.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina's 3rd District
Biggs is very likely to win: Biggs wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lehmacher (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Biggs is very likely to win: Biggs wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lehmacher (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Sheri Biggs
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $692.5K
- From individuals
- $113.1K
- Spent
- $537.2K
- Cash on hand
- $259.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 766,095
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 17%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
346,713 votes · R+47.8✓ Sheri Biggs (R)71.7%
Bryon L. Best (D)25.3%
Mike Bedenbaugh (OTH)2.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
350,868 two-party votes · R+43.6 · R+42.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.8%
Kamala Harris (D)28.2%
2022
195,427 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jeff Dan (R)97.6%
Write-In (—)2.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
333,564 votes · R+42.6✓ Jeff Duncan (R)71.2%
Hosea Cleveland (D)28.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
345,998 two-party votes · R+37.9 · R+42.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.0%
Joe Biden (D)31.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
226,204 votes · R+37.3✓ Jeff Duncan (R)67.8%
Mary Geren (D)31.0%
Dave Moore (OTH)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
272,481 votes · R+45.8✓ Jeff Duncan (R)72.8%
Hosea Cleveland (D)27.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
369,593 two-party votes · R+40.8 · R+43.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.6%