Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 18th District
FusionRyan is very likely to win: Ryan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ryan (D)
99%
chance of winning
Auringer (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Ryan is very likely to win: Ryan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ryan (D)
97%
chance of winning
Auringer (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Pat Ryan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.7M
- From individuals
- $3.6M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $3.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Jacqueline Auringer
Businesswoman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $89.7K
- From individuals
- $80.9K
- Spent
- $28.4K
- Cash on hand
- $61.3K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.1 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ryan | Auringer | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Sep 29–Sep 30 | 561 LV | 52 | 35 | D+17 | D+19.8 |
| Global Strategy Group for Ryan's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 53 | 39 | D+14 | D+10.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 30, 2026.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,190
- People per km²
- 157
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
362,509 votes · D+14.3✓ Patrick Ryan (D)57.1%
Alison Esposito (R)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
368,955 two-party votes · D+3.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
267,021 votes · D+1.3✓ Patrick Ryan (D)50.6%
Colin J Schmitt (R)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
335,876 votes · D+12.7✓ Sean Patrick Maloney (D)55.8%
Chele C Farley (R)43.2%
Scott A Smith (L)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
359,812 two-party votes · D+9.2 · D+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
251,690 votes · D+10.9✓ Sean Patrick Maloney (D)55.5%
James O'Donnell (R)44.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
291,527 votes · D+11.2✓ Sean Patrick Maloney (D)55.6%
Phil Oliva (R)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
304,705 two-party votes · D+1.5 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%