DemocraticIncumbent
Brad Schneider
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $2.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 10th District
Schneider is very likely to win: Schneider wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schneider (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lambrecht (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schneider is very likely to win: Schneider wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Schneider (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lambrecht (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Carl Lambrecht
Optics manufacturer and nominee for Illinois's 58th House of Representatives district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 749,913
- People per km²
- 540
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 6%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
328,525 votes · D+20.0✓ Bradley Scott Schneider (D)59.8%
Jim Carris (R)39.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
324,551 two-party votes · D+22.4 · D+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.2%
Donald Trump (R)38.8%
2022
242,165 votes · D+26.0✓ Bradley Scott Schneider (D)63.0%
Joseph Severino (R)37.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
317,219 votes · D+27.8✓ Bradley Scott Schneider (D)63.8%
Valerie Ramirez Mukherjee (R)36.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
348,579 two-party votes · D+26.4 · D+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.2%
Donald Trump (R)36.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
238,664 votes · D+31.2✓ Brad Schneider (D)65.6%
Douglas R Bennett (R)34.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
286,649 votes · D+5.2✓ Brad Schneider (D)52.5%
Robert J Dold (R)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
298,631 two-party votes · D+24.6 · D+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.3%
Donald Trump (R)37.7%