Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Same-party general election. Two Democrats advanced to November: the seat stays Democratic.
Doris Matsui has no major-party opponent.
Doris Matsui has no major-party opponent.
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Incumbent U.S. representative
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Sacramento city councilor (2020–present)
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Matsui | R | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress for Justice Democrats, Leaders We Deserve, and the Working Families Party, all of whom support VangD-sponsored | Aug 18–Aug 21 | 651 LV | 28 | — | — |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 21, 2026.
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.