Unopposed races skip the ballot
A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.
Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 7th District
Elijah is favored to win: Elijah wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Dalton (D)
36%
chance of winning
Elijah (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Elijah is favored to win: Elijah wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Dalton (D)
34%
chance of winning
Elijah (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Bale Dalton
Former NASA chief of staff
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $443.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Ryan Elijah
Former WOFL reporter and candidate for IN-3 in 2010
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $356K
- From individuals
- $221.9K
- Spent
- $169.8K
- Cash on hand
- $186.2K
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 777,869
- People per km²
- 285
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
413,854 votes · R+13.1✓ Cory Mills (R)56.5%
Jennifer Adams (D)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
420,052 two-party votes · R+12.5 · R+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.3%
Kamala Harris (D)43.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
304,356 votes · R+17.1✓ Cory Mills (R)58.5%
Karen Green (D)41.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
406,451 votes · D+12.3✓ Stephanie N Murphy (D)55.3%
Leo Valentin (R)43.2%
William R Garlington (I)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
453,183 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Joe Biden (D)46.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
317,405 votes · D+15.4✓ Stephanie Murphy (D)57.7%
Mike Miller (R)42.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
354,220 votes · D+3.0✓ Stephanie Murphy (D)51.4%
John L Mica (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
377,283 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+11.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.4%