Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 23rd District
FusionLangworthy is very likely to win: Langworthy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gies (D)
1%
chance of winning
Langworthy (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 2in our database
Langworthy is very likely to win: Langworthy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Gies (D)
2%
chance of winning
Langworthy (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Aaron Gies
Professor at St. Bonaventure University
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $584.4K
- From individuals
- $563.4K
- Spent
- $347.5K
- Cash on hand
- $230.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick Langworthy
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $991.9K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $2.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.5 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.5 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gies | Langworthy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Gies' campaignD-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 626 LV | 35 | 52 | R+17 | R+23.1 |
| Cygnal for Lagnworthy's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 19–Sep 21 | 400 LV | 33 | 54 | R+21 | R+18.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 23, 2026.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,506
- People per km²
- 42
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
376,503 votes · R+31.6✓ Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)65.8%
Thomas A. Carle (D)34.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
391,937 two-party votes · R+21.2 · R+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
296,893 votes · R+29.8✓ Nick Langworthy (R)64.9%
Max H Della Pia (D)35.1%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
74,203 votes · R+5.5✓ Sempolinski, Joseph (R)52.7%
Della Pia, Max H. (D)47.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
319,574 votes · R+16.8✓ Tom Reed (R)56.6%
Tracy Mitrano (D)40.4%
Andrew M Kolstee (L)1.1%
Claudia Tenney (R)1.0%
Anthony J Brindisi (D)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
393,213 two-party votes · R+18.6 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Joe Biden (D)40.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
240,315 votes · R+8.5✓ Thomas W Reed II (R)54.2%
Tracy Mitrano (D)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
336,644 two-party votes · R+26.8 · R+29.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.6%