Democratic
Jamie Ager
Farmer and grandson of former U.S. representative Jamie Clarke
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5.4M
- From individuals
- $4.7M
- Spent
- $3.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 11th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Ager (D)
42%
chance of winning
Balkcom (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 1in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Ager (D)
44%
chance of winning
Balkcom (R)
56%
- Average margin
- R+1.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jennifer Balkcom
State representative from the 117th district (2023–present) (previously declined, endorsed Moffitt)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $355.1K
- From individuals
- $92.2K
- Spent
- $60.1K
- Cash on hand
- $295.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ager | Balkcom | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports AgerD-sponsored | Sep 10–Sep 11 | 531 RV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+0.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 11, 2026.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 759,285
- People per km²
- 46
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
432,528 votes · R+13.5✓ Chuck Edwards (R)56.8%
Caleb Rudow (D)43.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
433,846 two-party votes · R+9.6 · R+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Kamala Harris (D)45.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
323,903 votes · R+9.4✓ Chuck Edwards (R)53.8%
Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D)44.5%
David Adam Coatney (L)1.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
900,550 votes · R+12.5✓ Madison Cawthorn (R)54.5%
Moe Davis (D)42.4%
Tracey Debruhl (L)1.9%
Tamara Zwinak (G)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
459,290 two-party votes · R+12.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.0%
Joe Biden (D)44.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
300,666 votes · R+20.9✓ Mark Meadows (R)59.2%
Phillip G Price (D)38.7%
Clifton B Ingram Jr (L)2.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
359,508 votes · R+28.2✓ Mark Meadows (R)64.1%
Rick Bryson (D)35.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
372,733 two-party votes · R+17.7 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.2%