Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut's 3rd District
FusionDeLauro is very likely to win: DeLauro wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
DeLauro (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lancia (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
DeLauro is very likely to win: DeLauro wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
DeLauro (D)
99%
chance of winning
Lancia (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+25.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Rosa DeLauro
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $518.6K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $349.4K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Chris Lancia
Law enforcement professional
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $14.6K
- From individuals
- $13.6K
- Spent
- $4.4K
- Cash on hand
- $4K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.32 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 722,660
- People per km²
- 557
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 13%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
328,923 votes · D+17.8✓ Rosa L. Delauro (D)58.9%
Michael Massey (R)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
336,036 two-party votes · D+14.7 · D+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2022
242,651 votes · D+16.6✓ Rosa L Delauro (D)56.8%
Lesley Denardis (R)40.7%
Amy F Chai (I)1.7%
Justin Paglino (G)0.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
346,101 votes · D+19.3✓ Rosa L Delauro (D)58.7%
Margaret Streicker (R)39.8%
Justin C Paglino (G)1.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
326,250 two-party votes · D+20.3 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.2%
Donald Trump (R)39.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
270,239 votes · D+29.2✓ Rosa L Delauro (D)64.6%
Angel Cadena (R)35.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
309,379 votes · D+38.1✓ Rosa L Delauro (D)69.0%
Angel Cadena (R)31.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
288,797 two-party votes · D+15.0 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%