DemocraticIncumbent
Ilhan Omar
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.8M
- From individuals
- $5.6M
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 5th District
Omar is very likely to win: Omar wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Omar (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nagel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+67.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+58 to D+77
- Partisan lean
- D+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Omar is very likely to win: Omar wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Omar (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nagel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+70.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+59 to D+82
- Partisan lean
- D+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
John Nagel
Retired police officer and nominee for Minnesota House of Representatives District 46A in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $927.9K
- Cash on hand
- $89K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+64: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 704,876
- People per km²
- 1,984
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 17%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
351,047 votes · D+50.3✓ Ilhan Omar (D)74.4%
Dalia Al-Aqidi (R)24.6%
Write-In (—)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
358,090 two-party votes · D+63.5 · D+65.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)81.8%
Donald Trump (R)18.2%
2022
288,206 votes · D+50.4✓ Ilhan Omar (D)74.3%
Cicely Davis (R)24.5%
Write-In (—)1.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
398,229 votes · D+42.7✓ Ilhan Omar (D)64.3%
Lacy Johnson (R)25.8%
Michael Moore (LMN)9.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
390,205 two-party votes · D+64.3 · D+59.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)82.2%
Donald Trump (R)17.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
343,358 votes · D+56.5✓ Ilhan Omar (D)78.0%
Jennifer Zielinski (R)21.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
361,882 votes · D+51.2✓ Keith Ellison (D)69.1%
Frank Nelson Drake (R)22.3%
Dennis Schuller (LMN)8.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
333,268 two-party votes · D+60.3 · D+58.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)80.2%
Donald Trump (R)19.8%