2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Which party will hold most governorships?

36 governorships are on the ballot.

Democrats are favored to hold most governorships (72%), which would end today's Republican majority.

Democrats

72%

chance of a majority

Republicans

28%

Avg. D governorships: 27.180% range 24–31
Avg. R governorships: 22.980% range 19–26
Now: 24 D · 26 R36 up this year

Democrats are favored to hold most governorships (77%), which would end today's Republican majority.

Democrats

77%

chance of a majority

Republicans

23%

Avg. D governorships: 27.680% range 24–31
Avg. R governorships: 22.480% range 19–26
Now: 24 D · 26 R36 up this year

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 36 governor races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

4 governorships projected to flip: 3 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

5 governorships projected to flip: 4 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D12

Likely D4

Lean D4

Toss-up2

Lean R5

Likely R6

Solid R3

Solid D10

Likely D5

Lean D6

Toss-up2

Lean R5

Likely R4

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The map

Each state colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

GeorgiaKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 7%51%Dem.52%Dem. NevadaAaron FordJoe LombardoFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.55%Dem. OregonTina KotekChristine Drazan66%Dem.68%Dem. TexasGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep. VermontAmanda JanooPhil ScottD flip69%Rep.65%Dem. WisconsinDavid CrowleyTom Tiffany72%Dem.71%Dem. FloridaDavid JollyByron Donalds72%Rep.71%Rep. OhioAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyD flipD flip73%Dem.72%Dem. KansasCindy HolscherTy MastersonR flipR flip76%Rep.77%Rep. AlaskaJonathan Kreiss-TomkinsDave BronsonD flipD flip76%Dem.75%Dem.

Most likely to flip

IowaRob SandZach LahnD flipD flip83%to flip79%to flip AlaskaJonathan Kreiss-TomkinsDave BronsonD flipD flip76%to flip75%to flip KansasCindy HolscherTy MastersonR flipR flip76%to flip77%to flip OhioAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyD flipD flip73%to flip72%to flip GeorgiaKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 7%51%to flip52%to flip NevadaAaron FordJoe LombardoFlip riskFlip risk42%to flip55%to flip OregonTina KotekChristine Drazan34%to flip32%to flip TexasGina HinojosaGreg Abbott32%to flip36%to flip VermontAmanda JanooPhil ScottD flip31%to flip65%to flip WisconsinDavid CrowleyTom Tiffany28%to flip29%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning a majority of governorships, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic governorships across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

36 races.

RCV AK Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Top two CA Top-two primary: every candidate ran on one primary ballot, and the two with the most votes advanced, whatever their party.
Top four AK Top-four primary: every candidate ran on one primary ballot, and the four with the most votes advanced.
Runoff GA Runoff: if no candidate reaches the required share of the vote, the top two meet again in a second round.
Fusion CT, NY, OR, VT Fusion voting: a candidate can appear on several party lines, and the votes add up.

36 races

State	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
Alabama	● Doug Jones● Tommy Tuberville	7%93% 8%92%	R+11.5R+13.0	Likely RLikely R	R+30	3
AlaskaD flipD flip	● Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins● Dave BronsonAlso: Treg Taylor (R), Bernadette Wilson (R)	76%24% 75%25%	D+4.4D+4.5	Lean DLean D	R+13	10
Arizona	● Katie HobbsINC● Andy Biggs	95%5% 92%8%	D+10.4D+9.3	Solid DLikely D	R+4	23
Arkansas	● Fredrick Love● Sarah Huckabee SandersINCAlso: Colt Shelby (L)	9%91% 9%91%	R+10.0R+11.7	Likely RLikely R	R+31	1
California	● Xavier Becerra● Steve Hilton	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+21.1D+21.9	Solid DSolid D	D+23	12
Colorado	● Phil Weiser● Victor Marx	96%5% 94%6%	D+18.8D+20.2	Solid DLikely D	D+12	—
Connecticut	● Ned LamontINC● Ryan Fazio	99%1% 99%1%	D+18.1D+19.7	Solid DSolid D	D+16	10
Florida	● David Jolly● Byron Donalds	28%72% 29%71%	R+3.4R+3.6	Lean RLean R	R+11	31
GeorgiaFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 7%	● Keisha Lance Bottoms● Rick Jackson	51%49% 52%48%	D+0.1D+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+2	20
Hawaii	● Josh GreenINC● Gary Cordery	99%1% 99%1%	D+30.9D+34.7	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
Idaho	● Terri Pickens● Brad LittleINCAlso: John Stegner (I)	1%99% 1%99%	R+23.8R+24.2	Solid RSolid R	R+36	4
Illinois	● JB PritzkerINC● Darren Bailey	99%1% 99%1%	D+19.3D+19.9	Solid DSolid D	D+13	2
IowaD flipD flip	● Rob Sand● Zach Lahn	83%17% 79%21%	D+5.6D+5.4	Likely DLean D	R+12	21
KansasR flipR flip	● Cindy Holscher● Ty Masterson	24%76% 23%77%	R+4.1R+4.8	Lean RLean R	R+16	7
Maine	● Hannah Pingree● Robert B. CharlesAlso: Rick Bennett (I)	98%2% 97%3%	D+12.2D+11.8	Solid DSolid D	D+8	18
Maryland	● Wes MooreINC● Dan Cox	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.2D+37.0	Solid DSolid D	D+31	2
Massachusetts	● Maura HealeyINC● Mike Minogue	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+25.1D+27.5	Solid DSolid D	D+28	11
Michigan	● Jocelyn Benson● John James	90%10% 88%12%	D+7.2D+7.0	Likely DLikely D	Even	32
Minnesota	● Amy Klobuchar● Lisa Demuth	94%6% 92%8%	D+9.3D+9.4	Likely DLikely D	D+5	11
Nebraska	● Lynne Walz● Jim PillenINCAlso: Rick Beard (LMN), Brett Lindstrom (OTH)	23%77% 24%76%	R+4.7R+4.8	Lean RLean R	R+21	11
NevadaFlip riskFlip risk	● Aaron Ford● Joe LombardoINCAlso: Danielle Ford (I)	42%58% 55%45%	R+1.3D+1.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+2	13
New Hampshire	● Cinde Warmington● Kelly AyotteINCAlso: Jon Kiper (I)	6%94% 26%74%	R+9.8R+5.8	Likely RLean R	D+4	11
New Mexico	● Deb Haaland● Gregg Hull	91%9% 89%11%	D+9.4D+10.2	Likely DLikely D	D+7	5
New York	● Kathy HochulINC● Bruce Blakeman	98%2% 97%3%	D+13.6D+14.9	Solid DSolid D	D+15	28
OhioD flipD flip	● Amy Acton● Vivek Ramaswamy	73%27% 72%28%	D+3.6D+3.7	Lean DLean D	R+11	29
Oklahoma	● Cyndi Munson● Mike Mazzei	9%91% 3%97%	R+17.2R+26.5	Likely RSolid R	R+35	—
Oregon	● Tina KotekINC● Christine DrazanAlso: Brett Smith (G)	66%34% 68%32%	D+3.0D+4.1	Lean DLean D	D+15	8
Pennsylvania	● Josh ShapiroINC● Stacy Garrity	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.9D+22.3	Solid DSolid D	R+1	21
Rhode Island	● Helena Foulkes● Aaron GuckianAlso: Ken Block (I)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.1D+45.2	Solid DSolid D	D+16	9
South Carolina	● Jermaine Johnson● Alan Wilson	10%90% 11%89%	R+9.6R+10.1	Likely RLikely R	R+17	3
South Dakota	● Dan Ahlers● Larry RhodenINC	10%90% 8%92%	R+14.4R+18.0	Likely RLikely R	R+29	—
Tennessee	● Jerri Green● Marsha BlackburnAlso: David Hatley (I), Lauren Pinkston (I)	2%98% 2%98%	R+14.5R+15.4	Solid RSolid R	R+29	5
Texas	● Gina Hinojosa● Greg AbbottINC	32%68% 36%64%	R+2.8R+2.3	Lean RLean R	R+12	53
VermontD flip	● Amanda Janoo● Phil ScottINC	31%69% 65%35%	R+3.2D+5.7	Lean RLean D	D+34	6
Wisconsin	● David Crowley● Tom Tiffany	72%28% 71%29%	D+3.4D+3.6	Lean DLean D	R+1	12
Wyoming	● Kenneth Casner● Eric Barlow	1%99% <1%>99%	R+32.4R+39.7	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.