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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 16th District
Gruters is favored to win: Gruters wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Kirschner (D)
22%
chance of winning
Gruters (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+4.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
Gruters is favored to win: Gruters wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Kirschner (D)
23%
chance of winning
Gruters (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kelly Kirschner
Former mayor of Sarasota
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $751.6K
- From individuals
- $744.1K
- Spent
- $398.8K
- Cash on hand
- $352.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Sydney Gruters
Former executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation and wife of state senator and chair of the Republican National Committee Joe Gruters
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $957.3K
- Cash on hand
- $616.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kirschner | Gruters | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 2 | 530 RV | 39 | 43 | R+4 | R+4.5 |
| Sea Polling for Kelly Kirschner's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 29 | 400 LV | 40 | 39 | D+1 | R+1.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 2, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 801,304
- People per km²
- 93
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 11%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
416,141 votes · R+19.0✓ Vern Buchanan (R)59.5%
Jan Schneider (D)40.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
437,103 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Kamala Harris (D)42.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
305,695 votes · R+24.3✓ Vern Buchanan (R)62.1%
Jan Schneider (D)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
484,684 votes · R+11.0✓ Vern Buchanan (R)55.5%
Margaret Good (D)44.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
611,188 two-party votes · R+7.0 · R+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Joe Biden (D)46.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
361,946 votes · R+9.1✓ Vern Buchanan (R)54.6%
David Shapiro (D)45.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
385,916 votes · R+19.5✓ Vern Buchanan (R)59.8%
Jan Schneider (D)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
378,594 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.4%