Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 22nd District
FusionMannion is very likely to win: Mannion wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mannion (D)
99%
chance of winning
Buller (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mannion is very likely to win: Mannion wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Mannion (D)
96%
chance of winning
Buller (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+16.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
John Mannion
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.1M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Kailee Buller
Former chief of staff of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $429K
- From individuals
- $356.6K
- Spent
- $228.7K
- Cash on hand
- $200.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.02 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 767,845
- People per km²
- 119
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 8%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
356,835 votes · D+9.1✓ John W. Mannion (D)54.5%
Brandon Williams (R)45.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
360,448 two-party votes · D+7.7 · D+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.8%
Donald Trump (R)46.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
268,610 votes · R+1.0✓ Brandon M Williams (R)50.5%
Francis Conole (D)49.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
319,009 votes · Even✓ Claudia Tenney (R)48.9%
Anthony J Brindisi (D)48.9%
Keith D Price Jr (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
363,562 two-party votes · D+11.6 · D+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.8%
Donald Trump (R)44.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
266,511 votes · D+0.2✓ Anthony J Brindisi (D)50.1%
Claudia Tenney (R)49.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
278,531 votes · R+6.2✓ Claudia Tenney (R)46.5%
Kim A Myers (D)41.0%
Martin Babinec (REF)12.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
309,645 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+3.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%