Democratic
Ben McAdams
Former U.S. representative from the 4th district (2019–2021)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $299.4K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Utah › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah's 1st District
McAdams is very likely to win: McAdams wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McAdams (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Owen (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- 1in our database
McAdams is very likely to win: McAdams wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McAdams (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Owen (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Riley Owen
Former White House policy analyst
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $149.6K
- From individuals
- $111.6K
- Spent
- $134.4K
- Cash on hand
- $15.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | McAdams | Owen | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Aug 31–Sep 10 | 515 LV | 63 | 21 | D+42 | D+51.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 10, 2026.
The district
Lean D+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 820,438
- People per km²
- 512
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 2%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
365,710 votes · R+32.6✓ Blake D. Moore (R)63.1%
Bill Campbell (D)32.1%
Daniel R. Cottam (L)4.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
317,779 two-party votes · D+24.3 · D+25.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.2%
Donald Trump (R)37.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
266,421 votes · R+33.9✓ Blake D Moore (R)67.0%
Rick Edwin Jones (D)33.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
342,331 votes · R+39.1✓ Blake David Moore (R)69.5%
Darren Parry (D)30.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
342,353 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
258,610 votes · R+42.4✓ Rob Bishop (R)60.6%
Lee Castillo (D)24.5%
Eric Eliason (I)11.4%
Adam Davis (G)1.9%
James Singer (D)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
278,485 votes · R+47.7✓ Rob Bishop (R)65.8%
Peter C Clemens (D)23.3%
Craig Bowden (L)5.9%
Chadwick H Fairbanks III (I)4.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
217,878 two-party votes · D+26.8 · D+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.4%
Donald Trump (R)36.6%