Democratic
Mallory Dittmer
Branding consultant
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $139.7K
- From individuals
- $136.2K
- Spent
- $65.2K
- Cash on hand
- $74.5K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina's 5th District
Climer is very likely to win: Climer wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Dittmer (D)
2%
chance of winning
Climer (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Climer is clearly favored to win: Climer wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dittmer (D)
6%
chance of winning
Climer (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Wes Climer
State senator from the 15th district (2016–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $754.3K
- Spent
- $606.9K
- Cash on hand
- $484.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 761,499
- People per km²
- 56
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 24%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
359,409 votes · R+27.2✓ Ralph Norman (R)63.5%
Evangeline Hundley (D)36.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
366,833 two-party votes · R+23.1 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.5%
Kamala Harris (D)38.5%
2022
242,748 votes · R+30.0✓ Ralph Norman (R)64.0%
Evangeline Hundley (D)34.5%
Larry Gaither (G)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
366,258 votes · R+20.2✓ Ralph Norman (R)60.1%
Moe Brown (D)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
365,639 two-party votes · R+18.7 · R+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Joe Biden (D)40.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,579 votes · R+15.8✓ Ralph W Norman (R)57.0%
Archie Parnell (D)41.5%
Michael Chandler (CST)1.4%
2017 specialEarlier district lines
88,251 votes · R+3.1✓ Norman, Ralph (R)51.1%
Parnell, Archie (D)48.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
296,448 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+23.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.4%