Democratic
Becky Stille
Agriculture processing quality manager
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $55.1K
- From individuals
- $18.3K
- Spent
- $40.3K
- Cash on hand
- $14.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Nebraska › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska's 3rd District
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Stille (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+45.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+55 to R+37
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Stille (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+46.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+58 to R+35
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Adrian Smith
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $433.2K
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.16 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 652,601
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
302,768 votes · R+60.8✓ Adrian Smith (R)80.4%
Daniel Ebers (D)19.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
306,273 two-party votes · R+54.5 · R+53.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.2%
Kamala Harris (D)22.8%
2022
220,552 votes · R+66.4✓ Adrian Smith (R)78.3%
David J Else (D)15.8%
Mark Elworth, Jr (LMN)5.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
286,770 votes · R+63.2✓ Adrian Smith (R)78.5%
Mark Elworth Jr (D)17.7%
Dustin C Hobbs (L)3.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
326,685 two-party votes · R+53.1 · R+57.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.6%
Joe Biden (D)23.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
213,304 votes · R+53.4✓ Adrian Smith (R)76.7%
Paul Theobald (D)23.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
226,907 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adrian Smith (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
277,658 two-party votes · R+56.6 · R+58.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.7%