Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Kentucky's 5th District

Rogers is very likely to win: Rogers wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Pillersdorf (D)

<1%

chance of winning

Rogers (R)

>99%

Average margin: R+52.8
80% of outcomes: R+62 to R+44
Partisan lean: R+63
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Rogers is very likely to win: Rogers wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Pillersdorf (D)

<1%

chance of winning

Rogers (R)

>99%

Average margin: R+57.2
80% of outcomes: R+69 to R+46
Partisan lean: R+63
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Ned Pillersdorf

Attorney, candidate for this district in 1992, and husband of former Kentucky Supreme Court justice Janet Stumbo

Experience: No elected office

Raised: $367.9K
From individuals: $176.2K
Spent: $225.3K
Cash on hand: $142.6K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

RepublicanIncumbent

Hal Rogers

Incumbent U.S. representative

Experience: Statewide office or Congress

Raised: $972.7K
From individuals: $462.3K
Spent: $979.2K
Cash on hand: $964.7K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office: 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Upper South adjustment: +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	-0.76
Elected-experience edge	-1
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	5.71
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	5.71

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean R+63: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 741,855
People per km²: 24
Adults with a B.A.+: 16%
White, no degree: 79%of adults

White 94%
Hispanic 2%
Black 1%
Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

261,407 votes · Uncontested by the other party

✓ Harold Rogers (R)100.0%

2024 President Vote in this district

312,887 two-party votes · R+64.7 · R+63.2 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)82.3%

Kamala Harris (D)17.7%

2022

216,268 votes · R+64.3

✓ Harold Rogers (R)82.2%

Conor Halbleib (D)17.8%

2020 Earlier district lines

297,653 votes · R+68.4

✓ Harold Rogers (R)84.2%

Matthew Ryan Best (D)15.8%

2020 President Vote in this district

352,258 two-party votes · R+58.6 · R+63.1 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)79.3%

Joe Biden (D)20.7%

2018 Earlier district lines

218,324 votes · R+57.9

✓ Harold "hal" Rogers (R)78.9%

Kenneth S Stepp (D)21.1%

2016 Earlier district lines

221,242 votes · Uncontested by the other party

✓ Harold Rogers (R)100.0%

2016 President Vote in this district

307,981 two-party votes · R+61.8 · R+64.0 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)80.9%

Hillary Clinton (D)19.1%

Also on the ballot in Kentucky

U.S. SenateCharles BookerAndy Barr99%Rep.98%Rep.

Neighboring districts

KY-1Drew WilliamsJames Comer>99%Rep.>99%Rep. KY-4Melissa StrangeEd Gallrein>99%Rep.99%Rep. KY-6Zach DemboRalph AlvaradoFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Rep.