DemocraticIncumbent
Joe Neguse
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.3M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $3.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Colorado › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado's 2nd District
Neguse is very likely to win: Neguse wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Neguse (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dennison (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+40 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Neguse is very likely to win: Neguse wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Neguse (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dennison (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+46.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+34 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kelley Dennison
Business owner and licensed massage therapist
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 734,145
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
416,908 votes · D+40.5✓ Joe Neguse (D)68.4%
Marshall Dawson (R)28.9%
Gaylon Kent (L)1.2%
Cynthia Munhos de Aquino Sirianni (OTH)0.9%
Jan Kok (OTH)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
419,654 two-party votes · D+40.9 · D+42.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.5%
Donald Trump (R)29.5%
2022
348,839 votes · D+42.8✓ Joe Neguse (D)70.0%
Marshall Dawson (R)28.0%
Steve Yurash (OTH)0.8%
Gary L Nation (CST)0.6%
Tim Wolf (OTH)0.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
515,663 votes · D+26.9✓ Joe Neguse (D)61.5%
Charlie Winn (R)35.4%
Thom Atkinson (L)2.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
433,911 two-party votes · D+40.8 · D+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)70.4%
Donald Trump (R)29.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
430,765 votes · D+28.4✓ Joe Neguse (D)60.3%
Peter Yu (R)33.6%
Nick Thomas (I)3.8%
Roger Barris (L)2.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
457,312 votes · D+21.0✓ Jared Polis (D)56.9%
Nicholas Morse (R)37.2%
Richard Longstreth (L)5.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
364,450 two-party votes · D+33.1 · D+30.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.6%
Donald Trump (R)33.4%