Democratic
Melissa Bean
Former U.S. representative (2005–2011)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $277.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 8th District
Bean is very likely to win: Bean wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bean (D)
99%
chance of winning
Davis (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bean is very likely to win: Bean wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bean (D)
97%
chance of winning
Davis (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jennifer Davis
Service technology company founder
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $690.7K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $444.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 740,409
- People per km²
- 981
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 5%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
303,073 votes · D+14.1✓ Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)57.1%
Mark Rice (R)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
302,679 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2022
207,215 votes · D+13.8✓ Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)56.9%
Chris Dargis (R)43.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
254,578 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)73.2%
Preston Gabriel Nelson (L)26.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
326,373 two-party votes · D+15.8 · D+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
197,127 votes · D+31.9✓ Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)66.0%
Jitendra "jd" Diganvker (R)34.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
248,571 votes · D+16.6✓ Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)58.3%
Peter "pete" Dicianni (R)41.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
270,151 two-party votes · D+16.8 · D+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.4%
Donald Trump (R)41.6%