Democratic
Danny Minton
Sales representative
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $44.3K
- From individuals
- $36.2K
- Spent
- $30.6K
- Cash on hand
- $13.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 6th District
Ellzey is very likely to win: Ellzey wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Minton (D)
1%
chance of winning
Ellzey (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ellzey is clearly favored to win: Ellzey wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Minton (D)
6%
chance of winning
Ellzey (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jake Ellzey
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.5M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $3.9M
- Cash on hand
- $2.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.82 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 801,498
- People per km²
- 124
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 33%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
286,442 votes · R+31.4✓ Jake Ellzey (R)65.7%
John Love III (D)34.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
304,179 two-party votes · R+23.2 · R+21.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Kamala Harris (D)38.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
149,318 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jake Ellzey (R)100.0%
2021 runoffEarlier district lines
39,166 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ellzey, Jake (R)53.3%
Wright, Susan (R)46.7%
2021 specialEarlier district lines
78,471 votes · R+17.8✓ Wright, Susan (R)19.2%
Ellzey, Jake (R)13.8%
Sanchez, Jana Lynne (D)13.4%
Harrison, Brian (R)10.8%
Lassiter, Shawn (D)8.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
339,992 votes · R+9.1✓ Ron Wright (R)52.8%
Stephen Daniel (D)44.0%
Melanie A Black (L)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
349,597 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
270,559 two-party votes · R+29.5 · R+31.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.2%