Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut's 2nd District
FusionCourtney is very likely to win: Courtney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Courtney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Austin (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+22.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Courtney is clearly favored to win: Courtney wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Courtney (D)
95%
chance of winning
Austin (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Joe Courtney
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $924K
- From individuals
- $401.3K
- Spent
- $645.4K
- Cash on hand
- $629.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
George Austin
Business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $314K
- From individuals
- $58.2K
- Spent
- $189.2K
- Cash on hand
- $124.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 721,832
- People per km²
- 130
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 3%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
376,047 votes · D+16.0✓ Joe Courtney (D)58.0%
Mike France (R)42.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
384,899 two-party votes · D+8.1 · D+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2022
285,030 votes · D+18.3✓ Joe Courtney (D)58.2%
Mike France (R)40.2%
Kevin Blacker (G)0.9%
William Hall (L)0.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
367,181 votes · D+21.7✓ Joe Courtney (D)59.4%
Justin Anderson (R)38.2%
Cassandra Martineau (G)1.3%
Daniel Reale (L)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
366,306 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
289,114 votes · D+27.4✓ Joe Courtney (D)62.2%
Danny Postemski Jr (R)35.4%
Michelle Louise Bicking (G)1.2%
Daniel Reale (L)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
330,257 votes · D+30.5✓ Joe Courtney (D)63.2%
Daria Novak (R)33.7%
Jonathan Pelto (G)1.6%
Daniel Reale (L)1.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
318,185 two-party votes · D+3.3 · D+1.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%